SpyderTracks
We love you Ukraine
@Scott @Rakk @steaky360 Just alerting you if this is too on the nose, totally understand if you need to remove it, will attempt to take any politics out of it, but thought it was an important thing to make people aware of.
Firstly, please this is not a political discussion in any way, it's purely about highlighting possible reasons for global price increases in the computing space so that you can plan accordingly.
As we all know, US is about to have quite a polarizing shift in governship.
The incoming government are suggesting the following:
1/. Tariffs on any imported goods, 10% from global markets and up to 60% from China
2/. Allegiances will face a dramatic shift, favoring countries like North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia and China
3/. trump as an individual and as a company brand owes significant sums of money
Let's break these down
1/. Tariffs on any imported goods, 10% globally and up to 60% from China
Most silicon production these days is done by TSMC (Taiwan Semi-Conductor Manufacturing Company), they hold the major contracts with Apple & Qualcomm in the ARM space, AMD, and even Intel have started outsourcing to them as they've had issues with the new design of the 200 series and the node.
TSMC foundries are mainly based in Taiwan. Taiwan after the Second World War essentially became an independent state and has it's own government, but China have never recognized it's independence. Unfortunately literally hours ago, China have acknowledged plans for an invasion of Taiwan.
There are other silicon manufacturers like Samsung based in South Korea and Global Foundries based in the US, and Germany mainly that was spun off from AMD when they divested in 2008, and was owned by Saudi Arabia until 2021 when it went public, it's now owned by shareholders. These don't hold a candle to TSMC.
It's not a coincidence China have waited until now for an invasion
So basically, as it stands, most silicon is set to increase in price by 60% as of January, given trumps performance on his last tenancy, this will be one of the very early things he will enact once he takes office in January. While this doesn't affect us directly, the US is a significant cog in the global distribution network, if their companies have sanctions against them trafficking products, that's going to raise costs in the global chain. We won't see anything like 60% but we may see 10% or so fairly quickly.
If China invades, obviously production halts at the biggest foundry in the world, and prices sky rocket.
2/. Allegiances will face a dramatic shift, favoring countries like North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia and China
This will be a coordination of what the west has deemed hostile governments for a long time, and with good reason. All these countries have dictatorial administration, and face stiff penalties if they don't conform to expected societal norms.
Unfortunately the reality is that if China are to invade Taiwan, trump will almost certainly turn a blind eye to it (because he's literally owned by China), and it would be up to Europe and UK to step in against significant opposition. It's almost a certainty North Korea will end up helping China as they've had a long standing agreement (Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid) which was renewed in 2021 to supply each other with arms and military in any battles. There are other factors at play here that come in the next part
The likelihood also is that trump will state that Ukraine are to bow down to Russia.
3/. trump as an individual and as a company brand owes significant sums of money
And who to? This is where it gets interesting:
trump has been bankrupt 6 times since the 70's and as such, no US bank will go near him. He got all his loans up until 2021 from Deutsche Bank, but after his personal banker was arrested for fraud and trump welched on the $364 Million he had in loans with them, they cut ties.
He owes A LOT of money worldwide, his brand is basically dust since 2020, his only real assets anymore are real-estate properties he still has left like trump tower but they've plummeted in value and it would take him a LONG time to find a buyer in the first place. But when it comes to actual money in the bank, he’s destitute.
trump owes New York State $464.5 Million in damages for criminal fraud and tax evasion, that was the tally back in February so it will unquestionably be more by now. trump tower (which is probably his most valuable asset) is currently valued around $300 Million and losing money fast, so even if he were to sell that it wouldn't cover the damages.
trump owes the Scottish High Court around £200 Million for fraud in grossly inflating the worth of properties on his golf course in Scotland that didn't even exist (this is currently a civil case, but it's likely to become a criminal case in the following months). He also entirely destroyed a huge natural ecosystem without building the houses he'd promised for the local community. His Scottish golf course is losing close to a £1 Million per year in running costs.
In recent years, all trumps borrowing has been from Saudi Arabia, Russia and China and at an underwriter level, China own most of his debt (as they own most of the global debt). All his manufacturing is done in China despite his attempts to look like he's tough on them, I guarantee, when they agree to back US in trade, trump will do a deal for them to ignore his debts if he supports them.
Firstly, please this is not a political discussion in any way, it's purely about highlighting possible reasons for global price increases in the computing space so that you can plan accordingly.
As we all know, US is about to have quite a polarizing shift in governship.
The incoming government are suggesting the following:
1/. Tariffs on any imported goods, 10% from global markets and up to 60% from China
2/. Allegiances will face a dramatic shift, favoring countries like North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia and China
3/. trump as an individual and as a company brand owes significant sums of money
Let's break these down
1/. Tariffs on any imported goods, 10% globally and up to 60% from China
Most silicon production these days is done by TSMC (Taiwan Semi-Conductor Manufacturing Company), they hold the major contracts with Apple & Qualcomm in the ARM space, AMD, and even Intel have started outsourcing to them as they've had issues with the new design of the 200 series and the node.
TSMC foundries are mainly based in Taiwan. Taiwan after the Second World War essentially became an independent state and has it's own government, but China have never recognized it's independence. Unfortunately literally hours ago, China have acknowledged plans for an invasion of Taiwan.
There are other silicon manufacturers like Samsung based in South Korea and Global Foundries based in the US, and Germany mainly that was spun off from AMD when they divested in 2008, and was owned by Saudi Arabia until 2021 when it went public, it's now owned by shareholders. These don't hold a candle to TSMC.
It's not a coincidence China have waited until now for an invasion
So basically, as it stands, most silicon is set to increase in price by 60% as of January, given trumps performance on his last tenancy, this will be one of the very early things he will enact once he takes office in January. While this doesn't affect us directly, the US is a significant cog in the global distribution network, if their companies have sanctions against them trafficking products, that's going to raise costs in the global chain. We won't see anything like 60% but we may see 10% or so fairly quickly.
If China invades, obviously production halts at the biggest foundry in the world, and prices sky rocket.
2/. Allegiances will face a dramatic shift, favoring countries like North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia and China
This will be a coordination of what the west has deemed hostile governments for a long time, and with good reason. All these countries have dictatorial administration, and face stiff penalties if they don't conform to expected societal norms.
Unfortunately the reality is that if China are to invade Taiwan, trump will almost certainly turn a blind eye to it (because he's literally owned by China), and it would be up to Europe and UK to step in against significant opposition. It's almost a certainty North Korea will end up helping China as they've had a long standing agreement (Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid) which was renewed in 2021 to supply each other with arms and military in any battles. There are other factors at play here that come in the next part
The likelihood also is that trump will state that Ukraine are to bow down to Russia.
3/. trump as an individual and as a company brand owes significant sums of money
And who to? This is where it gets interesting:
trump has been bankrupt 6 times since the 70's and as such, no US bank will go near him. He got all his loans up until 2021 from Deutsche Bank, but after his personal banker was arrested for fraud and trump welched on the $364 Million he had in loans with them, they cut ties.
He owes A LOT of money worldwide, his brand is basically dust since 2020, his only real assets anymore are real-estate properties he still has left like trump tower but they've plummeted in value and it would take him a LONG time to find a buyer in the first place. But when it comes to actual money in the bank, he’s destitute.
trump owes New York State $464.5 Million in damages for criminal fraud and tax evasion, that was the tally back in February so it will unquestionably be more by now. trump tower (which is probably his most valuable asset) is currently valued around $300 Million and losing money fast, so even if he were to sell that it wouldn't cover the damages.
trump owes the Scottish High Court around £200 Million for fraud in grossly inflating the worth of properties on his golf course in Scotland that didn't even exist (this is currently a civil case, but it's likely to become a criminal case in the following months). He also entirely destroyed a huge natural ecosystem without building the houses he'd promised for the local community. His Scottish golf course is losing close to a £1 Million per year in running costs.
In recent years, all trumps borrowing has been from Saudi Arabia, Russia and China and at an underwriter level, China own most of his debt (as they own most of the global debt). All his manufacturing is done in China despite his attempts to look like he's tough on them, I guarantee, when they agree to back US in trade, trump will do a deal for them to ignore his debts if he supports them.
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